Will "reasoning model premiums" collapse as efficient alternatives undercut pricing?
Timeline: 6 months (by August 2026)
Key Signal: Efficient alternatives 3-5x cheaper appear and gain traction
Timeline: 1 year (by February 2027)
Key Signal: Test‑time compute becomes a commodity efficiency layer
Started tracking: February 4, 2026
Check back in late 2026 for hit/miss status
| Provider | Model | Type | Price/1M tokens | Reasoning? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI | gpt-4o | Base | $2.50 | ✕ |
| OpenAI | o1-preview | Reasoning | $15.00 | ✓ |
| OpenAI | o1 | Reasoning | $20.00 | ✓ |
| Anthropic | claude-3.5-sonnet | Base | $3.00 | ✕ |
| Anthropic | claude-opus | Base | $15.00 | ✕ |
| DeepSeek | deepseek-v3 | Reasoning | $6.00 | ✓ |
Prediction made with 85% confidence: reasoning model premiums will collapse as efficient alternatives (3-5x cheaper) gain market traction.